The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just two months prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.