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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still